Experts: The global semiconductor market is expected to achieve a "three-year consecutive rise."

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Industry News

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2025-09-25

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According to a September 24 report by Reference News, citing the September 23 article from The Nikkei, the global semiconductor market is likely to become increasingly reliant on artificial intelligence (AI). An analysis of insights from 13 experts in the semiconductor industry suggests that semiconductor demand is expected to surge after 2026, driven by growing server needs and the widespread adoption of AI-powered personal computers. Meanwhile, the electric vehicle sector is experiencing slower growth, leading to persistently weak demand for related semiconductors. Even automotive-grade mature-process semiconductors—aside from cutting-edge ones—are showing signs of sluggishness. As a result, the divergence between companies' financial performance and their strategic investment decisions may further intensify.

The Nikkei Asian Review, focusing on the supply and demand situation for semiconductors from June 2025 to June 2026, categorized semiconductors—by type and application—into five levels ranging from "oversupply" to "shortage." Experts were invited quarterly to provide assessments, resulting in a total of 13 responses submitted by analysts, research firms, and specialized trading companies.

Many respondents pointed out in their replies that AI semiconductors will continue to remain in high demand even after 2026. As generative AI gradually gains wider adoption, the demand for cutting-edge logic semiconductors used in AI training and inference is steadily rising. Taito Kobayashi, Deputy Research Fellow at the Itochu Research Institute, noted: "Currently, the primary focus of demand remains in the server sector."

The underlying factor is that U.S. tech giants are making massive investments in data centers. As competition intensifies, companies are stepping up efforts to secure semiconductor supplies. In particular, graphics processing units (GPUs) developed by U.S.-based NVIDIA—designed for handling computational tasks—and high-bandwidth memory (HBM), used for temporarily storing computation results, are experiencing a notably strong surge in demand.

South Korea's SK Hynix ranks first in the global HBM market share. When the company released its second-quarter earnings report at the end of July, it emphasized the need to "seize the initiative," with plans to increase equipment investment in 2026 beyond the level seen in 2025.

The World Semiconductor Trade Statistics Association, composed of leading semiconductor manufacturers, forecasts that the global semiconductor market will reach US$760.7 billion in 2026, representing a 9% increase from 2025. Driven by the AI boom, the semiconductor market is expected to continue expanding for the third consecutive year.

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